Coach Billy Lange addresses Saint Joseph's players in a game earlier this season. (Photo: Aaron Bracy)
By AARON BRACY
November 9, 2024
PHILADELPHIA – The 2024-25 college basketball season is not even a week old, and Villanova and Saint Joseph’s already have uphill climbs to make it back to the NCAA tournament. Especially the Hawks.
On paper, St. Joe’s and Villanova are the two leading candidates to end the Big 5’s two-year NCAA tournament drought. At least one Big 5 team made the NCAA tournament every season between 1978 through 2022 before being shut out in 2023 and ’24.
At Hawk Hill, Billy Lange’s squad has been well-received in the preseason and entered 2024-25 looking like a legitimate candidate to get Saint Joseph’s back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2016. The Hawks were picked third in the Atlantic 10 preseason poll and placed three players—Erik Reynolds II (First Team), Xzayvier Brown (Second Team), and Rasheer Fleming (Third Team)—on the league’s preseason teams. All three of those players have received legitimate NBA interest, so it’s not far-fetched to have high expectations.
However, after eking out a 70-63 win over Navy in Monday’s opener, the Hawks’ NCAA at-large résumé took a huge hit with Friday night’s damaging 73-67 home loss to Central Connecticut at Hagan Arena. That was just two days after Villanova’s hurtful 90-80 on-campus setback to Columbia at the Pavilion. This is a Wildcats team that brought in much talent through the transfer portal and freshman class, so much so that KenPom ranked Villanova 20th before any games were played.
And then Wednesday and Friday happened.
Villanova was favored by 16 1/2 points; St. Joe’s was a 15 1/2-point predicted winner.
There is no way to sugarcoat either loss. Barring a league tournament title for either program and automatic entry into the NCAA tournament, those two losses will sting come March when the selection committee sits down to evaluate wannabes into the Field of 68.
Yes, March. It’s what drives college basketball. What drives scheduling. What drives recruiting. What drives everything. Heck, I think Joe Lunardi’s first 2025 Bracketology came out a day after the conclusion of the 2024 tournament. If not a day, it wasn’t too long after. So, yeah, March Madness matters all year. That’s why we talk about at-large bids five days into the season and what an early November home loss to a lower-rung team from a lower-rung conference will do to a team’s hopes.
When I asked Lange how he felt losing to Central Connecticut at home, he said, “The games weigh the same to me.” And that’s understandable. A coach needs to focus on the task at hand.
However, the games don’t weigh the same to the selection committee. Nope. Lose to Central Connecticut at home? Yeah, that’s pretty darn heavy. Same for Columbia at home.
So, what happened at St. Joe’s and Villanova? And where do they go from here? Let’s take a look.
Central Connecticut 73, Saint Joseph’s 67
This one really isn’t that hard to pinpoint. Quite simply, the Hawks took too many three-pointers and missed too many of them. And, defensively, shots came too easily for their opponent.
–Three-point missing: St. Joe’s made its first two three-pointers of the game and then proceeded, shockingly, to miss 16 of their final 17 of the first half. As a result, the Hawks got into a 37-27 halftime hole.
Here’s the thing that baffles me: St. Joe’s had a clear size and athleticism advantage against the Blue Devils. Rasheer Fleming had 19 points and 16 rebounds and probably could’ve gone for double that. There was no one who could stop him. On one first-half possession, Fleming found Shawn Simmons II for a dunk and then Simmons returned the favor on the next possession. It seemed to me like the Hawks could play bully ball and dominate the Blue Devils.
But they kept launching three-pointers, one after another after another after another. They kept missing, one after another after another after another.
Josh Verlin asked Lange a great question afterward about the shot selection and whether a team can play too fast, to which the coach said, “If they go in, they’re great. If they miss, they’re bad whether you take them fast or at the end.”
Listen, Lange has been coaching a long time at every level of basketball. He knows the game. He came to Hawk Hill from the 76ers and installed what I consider an NBA offense. As a player, especially a guard, the system looks like it would be tons of fun. No shot is too soon in the shot clock or too far from the basket, it seems.
The thing is though, St. Joe’s didn’t need to do that against the Blue Devils. In fact, I think the long-range strategy backfired because the long misses lessened the Hawks’ size advantage for rebounds and allowed the smaller, skinnier Blue Devils to not only grab long rebounds but get out on the fastbreak, where they scored 12 of their points.
The Hawks started the second half by making a concerted effort to get inside the arc, get to the basket for an easy bucket or a trip to the free throw line, and even took at least one—I know it’s a dirty phrase in basketball these days—midrange jumper. It worked, too, as St. Joe’s went in front by as many as four points, 46-42, when Fleming’s two free throws capped 19-5 run over the first 5:55 of the second half. But it wouldn’t last, partly because shots continued to clank off the rim—St. Joe’s finished 7 of 30 (23.3 percent) from long range—and partly because the Hawks couldn’t stop the Blue Devils.
–Defense: Central Connecticut ended up shooting 49.1 percent from the field, making 28 of 57 shots. They were 8 of 24 from three-point range, the 33.3 percent make rate not great but 10 points higher than the Hawks. I said this about St. Joe’s defense last year, and I’ll say it again: I think the Hawks have players who can be good to elite defenders. But it just doesn’t appear to me that defense is enough of a focus for this squad. It appears to me that St. Joe’s best defense is an offense that is going to overwhelm you with field goal attempts and points. But shooting is fickle, something clearly seen by Reynolds’s uncharacteristically cold night against CCSU, going 2 of 14 overall and 1 of 11 from the arc.
Defense, though, it says here, is something that is easier in which to be consistent. For me, whether basketball or any sport, defense is less skill than mentality. You have to want to defend. You have to want to stop your man. It has to be each individual bringing that mentality for team defense to be successful. I don’t see that with the Hawks.
On Friday night, as in many games last year, I saw St. Joe’s opponents getting to their spots, saw them getting open looks. Too easy, too many times. Sure, the Blue Devils made a few prayers, two of which came at the end of the shot clock late in the contest. Both were unlikely makes and backbreakers. But it really shouldn’t have come down to those shots if the Hawks defended better throughout the contest.
The story at Villanova on Wednesday wasn’t all that much different.
Eric Dixon lines up a free throw in Wednesday’s 90-80 home loss to Columbia. (Photo: Aaron Bracy)
Columbia 90, Villanova 80
–Defense: The lack of defense is really surprising, considering the emphasis coach Kyle Neptune places on defense and rebounding, two areas the Wildcats actually excelled at in a disappointing season in 2023-24 that saw Villanova go 18-16 overall, 10-10 in the Big East, finishing with a first-round NIT home loss to VCU and second consecutive NCAA tournament miss. It is almost unfathomable that the Lions scored 90 points, shot 53.7 percent from the field, got to the free throw line 26 times (making 24), and outscored Villanova 27-9 on fastbreak points.
–Offense: Eric Dixon was fantastic, especially in the first half when he scored 19 of his 33 points. Wooga Poplar was very good for the second straight game. He was electric on three drives to the basket and ended with 16 points. Those two combined to make 56.7 percent (17 of 30) of their field goals, including 46.7 percent (7 of 15) from three-point range. The rest of the Wildcats hit on just 33.3 percent (10 of 30) from the field, including just 23.5 percent (4 of 17) from three-point range.
–Turnovers: Columbia scored 21 points off 12 Wildcats turnovers. Twelve is too many, surely, but isn’t glaringly bad. But the nature of some of those turnovers, two of which occurred after made basket inbounds passes, are head-scratching for any team—particularly a Division I team and particularly one competing in the Big East Conference.
So, what now for Saint Joseph’s and Villanova?
To their credit, the Wildcats bounced back from Wednesday’s defeat with a 91-54 victory over NJIT at the Pavilion on Friday night. It should boost their confidence entering the start of Big 5 pod play on Tuesday at Hagan versus Saint Joseph’s. Villanova will have plenty of opportunities to make up for the Columbia loss, both in the nonconference portion of its schedule and Big East play. They certainly cannot afford any more slip-ups prior to league play against anyone not named Virginia, Maryland, or Cincinnati. (Yes, that means Tuesday’s game at St. Joe’s is pretty much a must-win for the Wildcats.)
The Hawks won’t have as many résumé-strengthening opportunities, though they have some. They’ll need to start with a win over Villanova on Tuesday and then build from there, with the contest against Virginia Tech on December 21 at the Palestra pretty much a must-win, along with the home game against Princeton on December 3. The Hawks also need to at least split at their late-November showcase event with Syracuse, Texas, and Texas Tech in Brooklyn.
Are at-large bids still doable? Well, certainly.
Did attaining one get harder? Absolutely. Especially for the Hawks because they won’t have as many opportunities for quality victories as Villanova.
If there’s a silver lining for the programs’ supporters in all of this, it’s this: On Tuesday, when Villanova heads to Hagan for another version of the long rivalry, at least one of the school’s fanbases will be smiling when it’s over.
—
Aaron Bracy has been covering Philadelphia sports since 1996. His byline regularly appears on Associated Press stories. Follow Bracy on X: @Aaron_Bracy and like his Facebook and Instagram pages. His book on the 2003-04 Saint Joseph’s men’s basketball team is expected to be published on March 1, 2025. Read a summary and preorder it by clicking HERE. Contact him at aaron@big5hoops.com.