The Big 5 will not have a team in the NCAA tournament for the third straight season.
By AARON BRACY
February 9, 2024
Big5Hoops.com
For 44 consecutive NCAA tournaments between 1978 and 2022, the Big 5 had a representative participate. Last year, for the first time since 1977, no Big 5 school got an invite to the Big Dance.
Could the Big 5 be left out again this season? Right now, sadly in light of its long and proud history, the chances are good that Philadelphia will not be represented in March Madness.
Before taking a close look at this season, let’s glance back at the 44-year run of the Big 5 in the NCAA tournament that began in 1978 when La Salle, Penn and Villanova went dancing. That year was one of 12 times over that stretch when at least three Philly teams made the tournament. (There was no NCAA tournament in 2020.)
In 1982, La Salle, Penn, Saint Joseph’s and Villanova all qualified, marking the only time in the 44 years that at least four schools made it.
Over that impressive, 44-year stretch, the Big 5 sent a total of 79 teams to the NCAAs, averaging 1.8 tournament teams per season. Add in Drexel’s five appearances over that time and that average is upped to 1.9. (The Dragons were not part of the Big 5 until this season.)
This season’s chances of returning a Big 5 team to the Big Dance were not great on Tuesday morning, and they’ve gotten even worse after a dreadful 0-5 week for the local teams.
Let’s take a close look at each of the six Big 5 teams, and assess where they are and what their chances are of returning to the NCAA tournament. (The percentage chance of making the tournament is not Lunardi, KenPom or any other scientific measure; rather, it is just a percentage that I think fits.)
Teams listed in order of best chance to make the NCAA tournament:
Drexel
–NCAA tournaments since 1977: Five
–NCAA thoughts: The Dragons had a run of three straight NCAA appearances in the mid-90’s before ending a long drought in 2021. They had some great teams under Bruiser Flint in the last decade but couldn’t get past VCU, which is now in the Atlantic 10, in the very tough CAA.
–2023-24 Update: Drexel (15-9 overall, 8-3 Coastal Athletic Association) lost its second straight game on a three-game road trip, falling 75-56 on Thursday night at UNCW. The Dragons were outscored 47-27 in second half after leading by one point at the break. The good news for Drexel fans is that the Dragons still are in first place in the conference, falling into a three-way tie with UNCW and Charleston, whom they next play on Saturday afternoon.
–How they get to NCAAs: Drexel must win the CAA conference tournament and earn the league’s automatic bid.
–Percentage chance of making it: 17 percent. Entering Thursday, I was thinking the Dragons had about a 20 percent chance of winning the CAA tournament. I dropped it by 3 percent after Thursday’s surprising second-half performance at UNCW. Even 17 percent is probably a bit optimistic, as winning the very competitive CAA is not an easy task for anyone, even the No. 1 seed. Still, whatever percentage is assigned, arbitrary or otherwise, I’m giving Drexel the best chance in the city at the moment to go dancing.
Villanova
–NCAA tournaments since 1977: 31
–NCAA thoughts: The Wildcats had a run of 15 NCAA tournaments in 16 seasons from 2005-2022 under Jay Wright, with a pair of national championships (2016 and 2018) in that remarkable stretch. They missed the NCAA tournament last season in coach Kyle Neptune’s first year at the helm after Wright surprisingly retired following the Wildcats’ Final Four appearance in 2022.
–2023-24 Update: Villanova (12-11 overall, 5-7 Big East) has been an up-and-down team all season but has had more downs of late. The Wildcats began 4-1 in the very tough Big East but have dropped six of seven, including Wednesday night’s 56-53 defeat at Xavier in a matchup of NCAA bubble teams. Villanova’s final possession was perplexing, with the Wildcats failing to even get off a tying 3-point attempt in spite of having the ball with 18.3 seconds to play.
–How they get to NCAAs: The Wildcats are the only team in the city still with the potential for an at-large bid. The other option would be to win the Big East tournament, which is highly unlikely with the likes of No. 1 UConn, No. 7 Marquette, No. 19 Creighton and unranked teams, like St. John’s, which swept a pair of games against Villanova, standing in their way. So, an at-large bid is Villanova’s most likely ticket to the dance, but it won’t be easy. The Wildcats have eight league games left. A 5-3 record in those eight contests would put Villanova at 18-16 overall, 10-10 in the Big East. A first-round win in the conference tournament to get to 19 wins would assure an NCAA berth.
–Percentage chance of making it: 15 percent. Here’s what Villanova has left: Seton Hall, at Georgetown, Butler, at UConn, Georgetown, at Providence, at Seton Hall, Creighton. Are there five wins in there? The way things have been going of late, I don’t think you can guarantee any victories for the Wildcats, not even Georgetown. Neptune always says the next game is Villanova’s biggest. In this case, it’s 100 percent true because I just can’t see a pathway to the NCAAs with a loss to Seton Hall on Sunday at the Wells Fargo Center. Even with a victory, the odds remain long, in my humble opinion.
Saint Joseph’s
–NCAA tournaments since 1977: 10
–NCAA thoughts: Since their magical run to the Elite 8 in 2004, the Hawks have been back to the NCAA tournament just three times (2008, 2014, 2016). (A reminder that I am writing a book on that 2003-04 St. Joe’s team and season. I hope to wrap up research and interviews by the end of April; write in May, June and July; and publish at the start of next season.)
–2023-24 Update: Saint Joseph’s (15-8, 5-5) has some good wins, most notably at Villanova and home versus Princeton, and captured the inaugural Big 5 Classic. The Hawks stumbled out of the blocks in league play, dropping their first three Atlantic 10 games, steadied themselves before missing a statement opportunity on Tuesday at home against Dayton. In that game, St. Joe’s played as well as it has all season in the opening 10 minutes of the first half and as poorly as it has all season in the opening 10 minutes of the second half in a 94-79 defeat. A recurrent problem for St. Joe’s has been its defense, and the Hawks gave up 60 – 60! – second-half points to the Flyers.
–How they get to NCAAs: St. Joe’s must win the A-10 conference tournament and earn the league’s automatic bid.
–Percentage chance of making it: 7 percent. I was thinking this number would be in the 10 to 15 percent range before Tuesday’s performance against Dayton. The Hawks’ best chance of winning the league tournament is to avoid the Flyers again until the final. If Dayton ends up as the No. 1 seed that means the Hawks would be best to finish as the Nos. 2 or 3 seed, thus earning a double-bye, or as the Nos. 6 or 7 seed, thus getting a single-bye. I actually think it might be beneficial for St. Joe’s to finish as the No. 6 or 7 seed, get a first-round win on Wednesday under their belts and some confidence and flow entering the A-10 tourney’s quarterfinals on Thursday, March 14.
Penn
–NCAA tournaments since 1977: 17
–NCAA thoughts: The Quakers were dominant in the Ivy League between 1999 and 2007, winning the league seven times over that nine-year stretch to gain automatic entry into the NCAAs. But the Quakers have returned just once, in 2018, since 2007.
–2023-24 Update: Penn (9-12, 1-5) looked like a really strong Ivy team for much of the nonconference portion of its schedule until leading scorer Clark Slajchert went down with an ankle injury at Houston on Dec. 30. The Quakers have won just once since Slajchert was ruled out for the “foreseeable future.” If there’s good news for the Quakers, it’s that they are just one game out of a three-way tie for fourth place with Brown, Harvard and Columbia. The top four teams in the league qualify for Ivy Madness, with the winner getting the league’s automatic bid. The bad news here for Penn, though, is they’ve already lost to all three of those teams, meaning a win in the rematch against each is a must.
–How they get to NCAAs: Penn must win Ivy Madness and earn the league’s automatic bid.
–Percentage chance of making it: 2 percent. With a healthy Slajchert returning, this number likely rises to about 10 percent. Without him, it’s highly unlikely that the Quakers will be back in the Big Dance this season.
La Salle
–NCAA tournaments since 1977: 8
–NCAA thoughts: The Explorers went to four tournaments in five seasons between 1988 and 1992, but they have been back just one time in the last 30 tournaments. That was the memorable Sweet 16 run by Ty Garland, Ramon Galloway and Tyreek Duren.
–2023-24 Update: La Salle (11-12 overall, 2-8 Atlantic 10) played well in nonconference, albeit against a weak schedule. The Explorers have a talented and experienced backcourt with Jhamir Brickus, Khalil Brantley and Anwar Gill, but they lack depth and size to win league games with anything less than an almost near-perfect performance. They played great last Saturday but still fell 88-82 at home against St. Joe’s. Still, that is the type of tough, feisty performance I expect out of them. So, it was a bit shocking to see one-win Saint Louis hang 102 points on the Explorers in a 102-84 La Salle defeat at Gola on Wednesday. The loss sank La Salle into sole possession of last place in the A-10.
–How they get to NCAAs: La Salle must win the A-10 conference tournament and earn the league’s automatic bid.
–Percentage chance of making it: 1 percent. We are rounding up here. A successful season, I think, for the Explorers would be appearing in some type of postseason tournament. They have some work to do to get there, but I still have belief – though it was tested a bit on Wednesday – that this Explorers team will be a tough out for league foes.
Temple
–NCAA tournaments since 1977: 26
–NCAA thoughts: The NCAA tournament was almost a birthright for Temple under John Chaney, as the Owls went dancing in 17 of Chaney’s 24 years, including 11 straight seasons from 1991 to 2001. Fran Dunphy followed with routine success leading up to March Madness, making the NCAAs in six straight years from 2008 to 2013. Dunphy went back in 2016 and then in his final season at the helm in 2019. Temple has not returned since.
–2023-24 Update: Temple (8-15 overall, 1-9 American Athletic Conference) took sole possession of last place in the AAC with Thursday’s 84-77 home loss to Memphis. The AAC has been an absolute disaster for Temple’s men’s basketball program, which left the Atlantic 10 in 2013. The fall from a program that regularly made the NCAA tournament and was one of the most respected in the country to one that now is ranked among the worst in the country is one of the sadder stories in Philadelphia sports in the last decade. A lot has to go right for first-year coach Adam Fisher to get the Owls back to respectability, beginning with an administrative push to get out of the AAC and into a conference that gives its basketball program its best chance to continue the legacy that John Chaney started. Clearly, the AAC is not the place for Temple basketball.
–How they get to NCAAs: Temple must win the AAC conference tournament and earn the league’s automatic bid.
–Percentage chance of making it: 1 percent. We are rounding up here. Sadly, there’s nothing much more to say here.
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So, there it is, an analysis of the Big 5’s chances to get back to the NCAA tournament. Not great, I know. Drexel is a very good team and would represent Philly well in the Big Dance. The Dragons just have a tough conference. Villanova? Well, there’s still hope, and we’ve seen very good to great play from the Wildcats. St. Joe’s? The Hawks’ offense is good enough to hang with most everyone, but defense has been an issue. Penn? Tell me the status of Clark Slajchert. La Salle? Temple? Not this year for either.
I don’t like making predictions because predicting sports is very hard, and I find that doing so takes some of the fun out of it for me. I’ll make an exception here, though, and predict that there will be one Big 5 team that beats the Bracy odds and goes dancing.
Which one? Not sure. Might have to bring a slipper with me next time out covering a game to see on which team it fits.
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Aaron Bracy has been covering Philadelphia sports since 1996. His byline regularly appears on Associated Press stories. Big5Hoops.com is his second website dedicated to Philadelphia college basketball. Follow Bracy on X: @Aaron_Bracy and like his Facebook and Instagram pages.
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Villanova tops Big 5 rankings
(Through games Feb. 8)
1. Villanova 12-11, 5-7 Big East
2. Saint Joseph’s 15-8, 5-5 Atlantic 10
3. Drexel 15-9, 8-3 Coastal Athletic Association
4. La Salle 11-12, 2-8 Atlantic 10
5. Penn 9-12, 1-5 Ivy League
6. Temple 8-15, 1-9 American Athletic Conference
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Sidelined Slajchert tops Big 5 in scoring
(Through games Feb. 8)
1. Clark Slajchert, Penn 17.4
2. Erik Reynolds II, St. Joe’s 17.3
T3. Hysier Miller, Temple 15.7
T3. Eric Dixon, Villanova 15.7
5. Khalil Brantley, La Salle 15.2
6. Tyler Perkins, Penn 14.6
7. Jhamir Brickus, La Salle, 14.3
8. Justin Moore, Drexel 12.8
9. Jordan Riley, Temple 12.7
10. Jahlil White, Temple 12.3
Drexel’s Williams leads Big 5 in rebounding
(Through games Feb. 8)
1. Amari Williams, Drexel 8.2
2. Nick Spinoso, Penn 7.4
3. Rasheer Fleming, St. Joe’s 7.3
T4. Tyler Burton, Villanova 6.8
T4. Jahlil White, Temple 6.8
6. Christ Essandoko, St. Joe’s 6.6
7. Eric Dixon, Villanova 6.3
8. Jordan Riley, Temple 6.1
T9. Sam Hofman, Temple 5.8
T9. Steve Settle III, Temple 5.8