Phil Martelli, speaking at a press conference for the 2004 NCAA tournament, took Saint Joseph's to seven NCAA tournaments in his 24 seasons at the helm, including 2016 when the Hawks last made the Big Dance. (Photo: Greg Carroccio/Sideline Photos)
By AARON BRACY
September 25, 2024
The Big 5 Classic got another boost with Monday’s announcement that the Tri-State Toyota Dealers Association is the title sponsor in a three-year deal that follows the news in June that the event will remain at the Wells Fargo Center at least through 2026. The WFC hosted the first-ever one-day, winner-take-all Big 5 tripleheader last season.
Now known as the Toyota Big 5 Classic, the second annual men’s event will be held on Saturday, December 7, 2024, with a tripleheader featuring all six Big 5 teams – Drexel, La Salle, Penn, Saint Joseph’s, Temple and Villanova. Toyota also signed on as the sponsor for the first-ever women’s event, to be held on Friday, December 6, 2024, at Villanova. Officials also announced that tickets for the event are now on sale HERE.
In light of Monday’s announcement, Big5Hoops.com kicked off a five-part series on the Big 5 on Monday that features the following:
–Monday: A look back at the inaugural Big 5 Classic last season
–Tuesday: Toyota’s Paul Muller on why the event is a good fit
–Wednesday: Wells Fargo Center’s Mike Sulkes on expectations for this year’s event
–Thursday: A close look at the matchups this year
–Today: Big 5 mailbag
In our first-ever Big 5 mailbag, we take a look at two big questions about the Big 5 in 2024-25 that were submitted to us on our X account.
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Bracy: The Philadelphia Big 5 went 44 consecutive seasons with a representative in the NCAA tournament from 1978 through 2022. (There was no tournament in 2020.) Over that stretch, the five schools combined for 92 trips to the Big Dance that included national championships in 1985, 2016 and 2018 for Villanova.
Add in Drexel’s five appearances during that stretch and the combined number of NCAA berths is 97. (Drexel was not part of the Big 5 until last season.)
But last season marked the second straight year without a Big 5 team in the Big Dance. The reasons for Philly schools’ absence have some to do with each of the schools and some to do with the changing landscape of college basketball.
Looking forward, the chances of Big 5 teams ending the NCAA drought, statistically at least, are not the best. Drexel, La Salle and Penn will be heavy underdogs to win their respective conference tournaments, likely their only way in to March Madness. Temple has improved but likely won’t be favored to claim the American Athletic Conference tournament, and the Owls don’t appear to have the strength of schedule to be considered for an at-large invite by the selection committee even with success in that schedule. However, the Owls showed last season that they can’t be discounted by shockingly reaching the finals of the AAC tournament.
So, realistically, that leaves Saint Joseph’s and Villanova as the two legitimate candidates to reach the NCAA tournament. Both are on the NCAA bubble in ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s most recent projection, with each listed as “Next Four Out.” Both the Hawks, who return Erik Reynolds II, Xzayvier Brown and Rasheer Fleming – all of whom are legitimate NBA prospects – and Villanova, which added a plethora of talent through the transfer portal, are expected to be good. The problem for both, however, is the top teams in their conference also will be good.
It’s possible that each could win their respective conference tournament, though St. Joe’s will have to overcome VCU, Dayton, Loyola Chicago and Saint Louis, all of which are going to be strong in the Atlantic 10. And Villanova will have to better a deep, talented Big East, led, of course, by two-time defending national champion UConn.
So, an at-large bid would be a more likely path to the NCAA tournament. Both have the strength of schedule built into their games in 2024-25 to earn an automatic bid. Here’s what each needs to do in order to get one.
Saint Joseph’s
–Overall: The Hawks’ schedule is loaded with quality opportunities, many of which likely will be Quad 1 games, both during nonconference play and Atlantic 10 competition. The Hawks won’t have to be perfect, but they’ll need to be really good to reach the Big Dance for the first time since 2016.
–Nonconference: St. Joe’s will play 13 games before conference play. The Hawks’ big-ticket games are versus Villanova at home and neutral site contests against Texas Tech and either Syracuse or Texas in Brooklyn and Virginia Tech at the Palestra. The Hawks need at least one win in those four games, though at least two definitely would be better for their résumé.
With one or two wins in those four contests, St. Joe’s will need to sweep the rest of its nonconference schedule: at home against Navy, Central Connecticut, Coppin State, Princeton, Charleston, American and Delaware State; at Penn; and whoever it plays in the Toyota Big 5 Classic.
If the Hawks manage to pull off three wins or, unexpectedly, sweep Villanova, Texas Tech, Syracuse/Texas and Virginia Tech, they can afford a slip-up at home against Princeton. But St. Joe’s can’t afford a home loss to any of its other nonconference foes, similar to last season when the home defeat to Texas A&M-Commerce kept the Hawks out of the NCAA at-large conversation despite a good 10-3 nonconference run.
To be comfortably in the at-large conversation entering A-10 play on New Year’s Eve at home against UMass, it says here that an 11-2 mark, with two wins over those four big-tickets, will put them right there.
–Conference: The Hawks’ A-10 schedule could not be any better as far as opportunities to build quality wins. St. Joe’s has six games against the conference’s expected elite – VCU, Dayton, Loyola Chicago and Saint Louis – with home-and-homes with Saint Louis and Loyola Chicago. The chance not only to beat those teams but to do it on the road is a great opportunity for the Hawks. At least, St. Joe’s needs to split those six games with at least one of the victories coming on the road.
That leaves 12 other A-10 games on the Hawks’ schedule. The rest of the league is going to be middling to not very good. On paper, St. Joe’s likely will be favored in all 12 of those contests and very heavily in some of them. Of those contests, only the matchup at George Mason is one that, at this moment, seems like it wouldn’t be looked upon poorly as a defeat in the eyes of the selection committee. So, give the Hawks a loss there and pick one more between the following: at home versus UMass, Duquesne, La Salle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure or Rhode Island; and on the road against Duquesne, Davidson, George Washington, Fordham or La Salle.
Add it up as follows:
Nonconference: 11-2 mark with at least two wins out of four games against Villanova, Texas Tech, Syracuse/Texas and Virginia Tech.
Conference: 13-5 with at least three wins in the six games against Saint Louis, Loyola Chicago and VCU.
Total: That’s a 24-7 mark and should be good enough, based on the quality of the victories to get into the NCAA tournament. (For comparison, Dayton received an at-large bid last season with a 24-7 overall record and 14-4 mark in the Atlantic 10.) Anything less than that and you take your chances.
So, will the Hawks get in: I know predictions are good for clicks, but I stopped making them because doing so takes the fun out of it for me. I have laid out what I think St. Joe’s needs to do to make the Big Dance.
Do I think it’s doable? Absolutely.
Will it be easy? Definitely not.
Will the Hawks make the NCAA tournament? I’ll let you decide.
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That leads us into Villanova.
Bracy: Kyle Neptune has been highly scrutinized in his two seasons at the helm of Villanova, as would be expected for anyone following in the footsteps of Hall of Fame coach Jay Wright. Wright set an extremely high bar on the Main Line by winning two national championships (2016 and ’18) and reaching two other Final Fours (2009 and ’22). People sometimes forget, however, that Wright did not make the NCAA tournament in any of his first three seasons and did not have a winning record in the Big East in any of his first three seasons.
Granted, we are in a different time and place with the transfer portal and Name, Image and Likeness (NIL), but it’s worth pointing out that even one of the greatest coaches in modern college basketball did not win right away. It also shows that winning is not easy, something Villanova fans have felt while going 35-33 overall and 20-20 in the Big East in the last two seasons under Neptune.
Neptune has had some missteps on the sidelines, as we pointed out in our Wildcats 2023-24 wrapup story, such as the end-of-game strategy at Butler last Jan. 27, when the Wildcats didn’t foul at the end of regulation when they had fouls to give and then couldn’t advance the ball past midcourt on their ensuing possession, and at Xavier on Feb. 7, when they couldn’t get off a tying 3-point attempt. Overall, though, Neptune’s biggest shortfall, it says here, has been in roster construction. And that falls on not just the head coach but the entire program. (By the way, I think there’s an argument, and a pretty strong one, that can be made that Neptune’s coaching job last season actually was really good to get 10 Big East wins from the 2023-24 Wildcats roster. Smartly, he heavily focused on defense and rebounding with that group.)
Villanova addressed several needs this offseason, particularly by adding point guard Jhamir Brickus (La Salle) in the transfer portal and adding players who can consistently make long-range shots, including Brickus, Wooga Poplar (Miami) and Tyler Perkins (Penn). Smartly, Neptune hired a veteran coach from outside the program who has lengthy experience in the NBA in Jamie Young. All three areas were points of emphasis in our wrapup story for ways the Wildcats can improve in 2024-25.
Getting back to the question of whether this is a make-or-break year for Neptune. That decision will be in the hands of whoever is hired to replace Mark Jackson as Villanova’s new athletic director. Certainly, another NCAA tournament miss, in spite of Wright starting his career the same way, will turn up the heat on Neptune even more.
To avoid that, Villanova, obviously, needs to get back to the NCAA tournament. Here’s how the Wildcats can do it.
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Villanova
–Overall: As always in the tough Big East, Villanova will have plenty of opportunities for quality victories. They also have a mix of should-be-easy wins and just enough challenging opportunities in the nonconference schedule to impress the selection committee. Here’s a closer look at what Villanova needs to do to end its two-year NCAA tournament drought.
–Nonconference: The Wildcats need to sweep home games against Lafayette, Columbia, NJIT, Penn, Rider and FDU. That leaves the following four games: at Saint Joseph’s, home vs. Cincinnati and neutral contests against Virginia and Maryland. Villanova can afford losses in two of those games. Because the Hawks are anticipated to be good, even a defeat at St. Joe’s, though Wildcats fans will not be happy, won’t be a backbreaker as long as the Wildcats offset it with two wins from either Maryland, Cincinnati and Virginia. Villanova also must win its game in the Toyota Big 5 Classic. Total it up and that’s a 9-2 nonconference mark and puts Villanova in good shape entering Big East play.
–Conference: The Big East is a bear. Besides two-time defending national champion UConn, St. John’s, Creighton, Marquette and Providence will be tough. Winning at Butler is always a challenge for the Wildcats, and Xavier is never an easy out. Georgetown will improve under Ed Cooley. DePaul, probably, is the only so-called easy win on the Wildcats’ schedule, though the Demon Deacons proved in the Big East tournament last season with a near-upset of Villanova that even games against them aren’t a lock victory.
That said, Villanova will need to find a way for at least 14 victories in the conference. That leaves room for six losses. You can go through the schedule and do the W’s and L’s. However you add it up, you need to come up with a 14-6 mark in the Big East.
Add it up as follows:
Nonconference: 9-2
Conference: 14-6
Total: That’s a 23-8 mark and very close to the 23-9 overall record and 14-6 Big East record that Creighton had last season when it was an at-large pick into the NCAA tournament. Marquette, the second Big East at-large selection, went 25-9 overall and 14-6 in the league in 2023-24. It’s worth noting that neither Seton Hall (25-12, 13-7 Big East) nor St. John’s (20-13, 11-9) were selected by the NCAA committee despite calls to the contrary by Big East supporters.
So, will the Wildcats get in: I know predictions are good for clicks, but I stopped making them because doing so takes the fun out of it for me. Just as with St. Joe’s, I have laid out what I think Villanova needs to do to make the Big Dance.
As with the Hawks, do I think it’s doable? Absolutely.
Will it be easy? Definitely not.
Will the Wildcats make the NCAA tournament? I’ll let you decide.
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Aaron Bracy has been covering Philadelphia sports since 1996. His byline regularly appears on Associated Press stories. Follow Bracy on X: @Aaron_Bracy and like his Facebook and Instagram pages. His book on the 2003-04 Saint Joseph’s men’s basketball team is expected to be published on March 1, 2025. Read a summary and preorder it by clicking HERE. Contact him at aaron@big5hoops.com.